The said trades for Iranian oil would continue despite US sanctions.
In that world of really creative trading plays and companies and trading houses being domiciled in all kinds of jurisdictions precisely to avoid constraints on their activity … it will be incredibly difficult for the United States to be tough on enforcement without very willing and robust participation from Iran’s major oil consumers.”
Rosenberg said some international companies would abide by US sanctions.
“Of course companies make their own decisions and they may look at this high-risk scenario with expensive compliance costs if they wanted to try to find the narrow legal path or non-legal path to keep doing business with Iran,” she said. “Where there is compliance, it will be because countries internationally see value in preserving alliance even where they are unhappy about doing so.”
While companies would manage to work around the sanctions to trade Iranian oil, Rosenberg said companies wanting to make significant investments in Iran’s energy sector will have a tougher time evading reimposed US sanctions.
“Anyone who’s interested in moving forward in that investment picture, they have to be willing to court massive legal risk if they want to try and continue it. So I think we’ll see a much more cautious attitude toward flouting US sanctions there.”