Why Iran shouldn’t get too Excited about Brexit

Given these figures, if changes were made in Britain’s $8 billion worth of trade with Iran, it would be insignificant in the short run, according to Ferial Mostofi, the head of the investment panel at the Iran Chamber of Commerce.

Thus, for Iran, it would be prudent to maintain positive relations with both the United Kingdom and the EU, as underlined in the Foreign Ministry’s statement, rather than to celebrate the possible collapse of the “tyrannical rule of the monarchy” and get emotional about Scotland and Northern Ireland potentially seceding to remain in the EU.

If anything, it would be a strategic miscalculation for the Rouhani administration to exaggerate its position on Brexit, since a closer relationship with a single European country, even one as prominent as Britain, cannot remedy Iran’s structural economic and political problems.

Indeed, regardless of Brexit, Britain is very likely to maintain its role on the global stage, somewhere between the United States and Europe when it comes to political engagement with Iran. Given as much, in terms of trade, it is likely that Brexit will help reshape economic relations between London and Tehran, but not in the short run.

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