However, Russia’s recent actions show that Moscow is determined to replace Iran and Hezbollah and be the new power in charge of military operations in Iraq and Syria. In parallel, it appears that the Russian government is alarmed about Assad staying in power and is thus pursuing the idea of an Alawite state in Syria’s coastal region. Mindful of the latter, it is evident that the formation of the joint intelligence base, as well as Russia’s direct military presence in Syria, will create multiple problems for Iran.
First, the sharing intelligence and military data can result in Moscow gaining more information regarding the military capabilities of Hezbollah. Considering Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s silence and implied consent regarding Russia’s interference in Syria, it is possible that, in the future, Israel can have better access to confidential information regarding Iran and Hezbollah’s military capabilities via Russia.
Second, Iran and Hezbollah have so far paid the highest military and security price in Syria. Russia’s strong presence in the country can easily weaken the strong positions of Iran and Hezbollah, and thus weaken Tehran’s position in future political negotiations on the future of Syria.