An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team has reported that comprehensive economic reforms will be needed in Iran if it is to benefit from the nuclear deal it struck with six world powers in July.
It said real GDP growth is projected to decline from 3 percent in 2014/15 to somewhere between 0.5 to -0.5 percent in 2015/16, depending on the exact timing of the expected lifting of sanctions.
“Prospects for 2016/17 are brighter,” it continued. “Higher oil production, lower costs for trade and financial transactions, and restored access to foreign assets, would be expected to lift real GDP to about 4–5.5 percent next year.”
Twelve-month (point-to-point) inflation has declined to around 12 percent in recent months, largely reflecting lower food and beverage inflation, and the inflation rate is expected to remain close to 14 percent by year-end.
As of December 2014, unemployment remained at 10.5 percent.
The full text of the IMF statement can be read below:
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Mr. Martin Cerisola, Assistant Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, visited Tehran during September 19–30 to conduct the 2015 Article IV Consultation discussions. Aasim M. Husain, Deputy Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, also participated in some of the discussions. The IMF team exchanged views with senior officials of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and the Management and Planning Office (MPO) and other government agencies on recent developments in the Iranian economy, the near-term outlook, and the authorities’ plans on macroeconomic policies and structural reforms. The IMF team also met with a wide range of public sector officials and representatives of the business community, academia, and trade unions. Based on the visit, a staff report will be prepared and presented to the IMF’s Executive Board in early December.